I’ve written a guest post for Forbes magazine on Erik Kain’s blog, in which I speculate how Amazon could pull an Apple by focusing on video the way Apple did on music. Check it out!
Look, it’s basically obvious – Amazon’s new Android Appstore is the precursor to Amazon launching a full-fledged Android tablet of its own. And, true to the character of the kindle, it’s going to be cheaper than other tablets, won’t be packed with features like gyroscopes and cameras, and will probably use a Mirasol color display that is just as readable outdoors as e-Ink and can support video.
This inevitable Amazon tablet, which I am dubbing the “aPad”, will allow complete vertical content management just like Apple does with iTunes, since Amazon also sells movies, music and now apps – but Amazon has a bigger customer base, and also has that one-click patent everyone loved to hate. Also, the appstore even lets you test-drive apps from right in the web browser.
No wonder Apple is scared sh#$&less and is suing Amazon over the name and trying to boot Kindle from iOS.
I cannot wait.
UPDATE: On facebook, a dear friend (and Apple zealot, in a good way 🙂 comments:
…just like the android phones killed the iPhone! …wait..
Now, let me assert and concede that the iPhone is probably the finest phone in existence. And frankly I don’t think that there will ever be a iPhone killer. It should be noted however that the definition of “killer” is rather loose – Android is indeed eating the iPhone’s lunch with respect to market share, for example. But user experience? I’ve never used Android, so I can’t comment, but we are an iPod Touch 4, iPhone 4, and iPad 1 family. I personally use a blackberry because I am a keyboard guy, and the bberry approaches Thinkpad transcendence in that regard. At any rate, I know and use iOS and no one is going to beat iPhone on that field, not for a long time.
But a tablet is a different matter. iPad certainly opened the door, but the iPad is still a flawed device in a fundamental way: it’s not even remotely “post-PC” as Apple pretends it to be. Without a PC the iPad is unusable. Without iTunes the iPad is closed. Only a technology company with equal vertical integration of a content ecosystem, like Amazon, can match the iPad. Here’s your basic task: decide you want to watch a certain movie, get it on your tablet, and watch it on the train during your commute. How can you do that on Android right now? Only Amazon and Apple can make that happen.
But where Amazon has the advantage is that it sells un-DRMed MP3s for music, permits video downloads as separate files, and (this is where the Andoid advantage comes in, which is irrelevant on a phone platform) supports industry standards for content. So you have the best of all worlds.
Don’t get me wrong – the iPad won’t die after being killed. But for the average family, the aPad will simply be a better value – half the cost, half the weight, and none of the hassles. For surfing the web, parity; for watching TV and video, advantage.
I think Apple’s true genius device is the iPod Touch. No one has anything like it. and the iPhone is king. But the iPad is a niche product, like netbooks were – and Apple has left a huge opening for Amazon to exploit by making it such a closed ecosystem.
The quintessential question – buy an iPad or a Kindle? – is rather glibly answered by Mark Jaquith here: buy both.
Well, that’s what you’d expect an iPad owner to say, because they are the sort that can afford to blow $500 on an oversized iPod (the new 4th generation version of which is, as even Jobs himself conceded, basically iPhone 4 without the flawed phone or exorbitant monthly expenses).
But Jaquith also makes a pretty solid case on the philosophical merits for one of the devices over the other. It’s implicit, but pretty much impossible to deny which device is superior, from this:
With the Kindle, youâ€™re becoming absorbed in a story for an hour or more at a time. You can read in bed, right before you go to sleep, without worrying that it will rile you up. To the contrary, the Kindle relaxes you. You might even take it outside to the pool or to the hammock. Flight attendants will chastise the iPhone-using passenger next to you as the plane descends for landing; but you, the gentle Kindle user, sheâ€™ll merely touch on the shoulder and tell you with a smile to make sure your seatbelt is securely fastened.
The iPad wakes you up. BAM! Hereâ€™s the news, with pictures and video. TWEET! Hereâ€™s the torrential banality of Twitter to distract you from something (or everything) important. TWEET! Hereâ€™s the same exclamation used again because youâ€™re paying the insanely addictive Angry Birds game. ZAP! Hereâ€™s you firing off an e-mail over your morning coffee.
Iâ€™ve never found myself struggling which to pick, much in the same way that nobody is ever torn between having tea and going sky diving. They are different devices, for different purposes. And thatâ€™s a good thing in the case of the Kindle. There is something almost drug-like about having a device that can do anything. Itâ€™s hard to turn off that ability. With the Kindle, you wonâ€™t be thinking about increasing your Fruit Ninja high score, or frantically checking and re-checking your e-mail. Youâ€™ll be in the only state that is appropriate when reading a book: completely lost in it.
And the iPad? It lets you live your soul crushing, hyper connected, vanity searching, e-mail enslaved life in any room of the house, instead of being planted in a desk chair in a darkened basement. And it has two other things going for it: itâ€™s easy to set it down and rejoin the world, and sometimes youâ€™ll lose it in a stack of mail for a day and be forced to do something edifying instead.
I just bought an iPod Touch 4th Gen because my kids took my 3rd Gen away from me. I intend to use it entirely for two things: Skype and Facetime with my iPhone-4-totin’ wife. For everything else, I have my blackberry – and if I really want to play Angry Birds, I can ask my kids’ permission.
A friend of mine at work has an aging TI-92 – it’s a massive beast, and makes me remember just how obsessed we all were with graphing calculators back in college. There’s no truly equivalent app that replicates that sort of computational power in the various app stores that I am aware of (I looked for something akin to that for my iPod Touch, but no luck). Even a simple math scripting app, like SpeQ (sort of a mini-Matlab), would be a huge quantum leap in usability. I wonder if I am just missing something? I’d probably pay quite a bit of money for the ability to replicate the sophisticated graphing calc power of old on my iPod (and it would probably do even better in the iPad).
This is what would literally turn iPads into Padds overnite.
I admire the iPad. It’s a marvel of engineering and all things geek service. In fact, Netflix and Kindle are probably the killer apps for obvious reasons of color and viewing size. But technolust aside, it doesn’t replace any of the screens I use on a regular basis: my television, my phone, my PC, and my portable entertainment device(s). And at $500, for vastly reduced functionality relative to a comparably-priced netbook, it’s purely a status symbol and luxury item rather than a genuine productivity tool or primary entertainment device. (Plus, I hear the wi-fi doesn’t work so well…)
Steve Jobs’ ambitions aside, this is actually a great year for the Four Screens. Here’s my wish list of upgraded versions of each.
This year or early next we will upgrade to an HDTV, with DVR. The prices are fast approaching the $100/inch mark which means a 50″ plasma will cost the same as an iPad by the end of the year!
We already have our Netflix disc for Wii and a DVD player, the latter of which also supports some digital formats on USB. I’ll expand my video file format options with a Roku or popbox or equivalent at some point, too. Virtually all my video is now consumed on my TV, instead of my PC, and that will reach 100% soon. If I’m sitting on the couch, would I rather be watching the big screen or staring at an iPad? And which is better for family viewing?
2. Sprint Evo 4G Smartphone
Right now I’m using an ancient flip phone on Sprint. My renewal discount is coming up this month, and I’d previously been torn as to whether to go Palm Pre, a Blackberry, or an Android phone. None of the options really excited me, until I recently heard about Sprint’s Evo 4G coming out this summer. It’s magnificent. We don’t have WiMax in Madison but it’s available in Chicago and Houston, where most of our family resides, so I expect to get some use out of it. But even on the 3G network, this thing is going to be amazing. And it’s Android, so no Apple heavy hand dictating what apps are allowed to run and which aren’t – I’ll be running Skype, Google Voice, and the ubiquitous social networking apps from day one.
3. Pine Trail / Ion 2 netbook
My primary PC at home is still my trusty Thinkpad T42, and I have a second homebuilt machine for the kids and my Warcraft addiction. But the PC I use when I’m out of the house is my stalwart little Asus EEE 901. It’s showing it’s age, though, and given that the latest batch of Atom 2 netbooks can actually play WoW, I’m definitely ready to upgrade. The Ion 2 chipset is essential, however, because it allows for switching between dedicated graphic or integrated graphics on the fly, preserving battery life without sacrificing performance. My only concern is that it might be hard to find one with an SSD – but that’s ok, I can always upgrade, as SSDs are also getting cheaper and cheaper with time. True, SSDs are lower capacity, but I’ve been doing just fine with an 8GB drive on my EEE. I’ll manage 🙂
Its clear why Apple didnt create a netbook – they dont want a low-margin product. The iPad is their attempt to displace the netbook market – Mossberg is buying it hook, line and sinker – but you just cant do things on an iPad that you can on a netbook, and never will. Including writing, coding, Skype, or video chat (at least until version 2, anyway).
4. Kindle 3
Technically the last category of screen, “portable entertainment”, is a multi-device option. We have an iPod Touch, an IPod nano, and a Nintendo DS Lite. All of these are primarily used by my kids, of course – I use the iPod Touch for Skype at work, and the Nano while working out on our home elliptical, but other than that I dont really do much media consumption. I expect that will change with my new smartphone, but I am also ready to go Kindle when Amazon makes it’s inevitable response to the iPad challenge. To be honest, I still would prefer a Kindle 2 to an iPad, because e-ink is frankly superior for reading under any lighting condition – especially outside. And at half the cost, it’s a no-brainer, despite being a niche device. But let’s see what goodies Amazon packs into the new version – touch screen? color e-ink? I’d pay up to $300 for it, which is still 60% cheaper. It’s worth noting that Amazon’s post-iPad strategy is still laden with profit opportunities, which benefit me as a consumer more than buying into iPad’s closed ecosystem.
Overall, the cost for all these goodies? HDTV: $500, Evo 4G phone: $200 (estimated, including 2 year contract renewal), netbook: $500, Kindle 3: $300. That’s a total of $1500 – if the iPad could replace all of this functionality on a single screen then I’d be interested in paying $1000 for it. But instead, the iPad is completely redundant with these screens and thus costs me an extra $500 on top of that. I’m looking forward to upgrading my toys this next year, and while no one is going to notice my geek chic in public, at least I wont be sacrificing any functionality or convenience.
Then again, what do I know? Maybe the iPad really is the Next Big Thing. “Instead of holding a MOUSE, you’re holding MAGIC.” who can argue with that? 😛