Haibane.info

The prices on HD-DVD players have started to move downwards at Amazon, with the HD-A3 model now priced at $99 and the HD-A30 at $129. The mail-in rebate for 5 free HD-DVDs expires on the 28th, so I assume that there will be further price reductions on the 29th, assuming they have the inventory. Both players come bundled with 300 and Bourne Identity, and I view the BBC Earth series as mandatory.

The question is, whether the extra $30 for the A30 is worth it. The primary difference is that the A30 supports 1080p output, whereas the A3 only does 720p/1080i. My intended use for this player is primarily as an upscaler for my standard DVD collection (and NetFlix), for an HDTV I have yet to buy (normal upscaling DVD players cost around $50-$70 anyway). Standard DVDs are 480p. As long as the HDTV unit supports 720p as a native resolution (which it should, regardless of whether I buy a HDTV capable of 1080p or just 1080i), then the 720p output of the A3 is all I will ever need, right? Even if I want to watch my HD-DVD discs at 1080i, few though they presumably will be, will I even be able to tell the difference between it and 1080p?

I can see myself in a similar quandary later when I decide whether to buy a HDTV at 1080p or not. I could just settle for 1080i as my maximum across the board and simplify things. I’d appreciate any suggestions or information regarding the matter, if you all have any.

Highly relevant reading: a piece at the NYT in which they talk to the founder of the Abt Electronics chain. In a nutshell, Blu-ray just isn’t a value proposition right now.

“Most people are happy just buying a better DVD player, instead of spending $350 or $400 for Blu-ray,” Mr. Abt said. “An upconverting DVD for $79 is a great value. It has a great picture, really better than an old DVD. You really see a difference.”
[...]
What about all the people who bought HD DVD players, prompted by Toshiba’s aggressive price cuts? Mr. Abt hopes he can at least partially mitigate their anger and frustration by pointing out how well the players can display standard DVDs.

“We have a lot of people who bought HD DVD players in the last few months,” he said. “We are going to communicate with them: you have an upconverting DVD player, enjoy it. You paid $150 for it, so you didn’t lose too much.”

And of course, we have less than a year to go before the digital switchover.

UPDATE: HD-DVD players in retailer inventory are now being described as “upscaling DVD players with HD-DVD playback“.

Engadget Japan live-blogged the official announcement by Toshiba president Nishida-san that Toshiba is discontinuing HD-DVD and ceding the format war to Blu-ray. Some interesgting tidbits from the Q&A following the announcement:

Q: Any plans to adopt Blu-ray?
A: No plans at all, not at this moment.

Q: How many HD DVD players and recorders, exactly, did you sell?
A: 600,000 players in the US — 300,000 of which were Xbox 360 HD DVD drives. 100,000 units were sold in Europe. And about 10,000 players and 20,000 recorders in Japan. So about 730,000 units worldwide.

Nishida-san did say that Toshiba would stockpile HD-DVD media and sell them online for use by owners of HD-DVD recorders. Also, Toshiba will “continue to assess the position of notebook PCs with integrated HD DVD drives.”

The full press release with more details is available here.

I’e still got my eye on the Toshiba HD players at Amazon. I’m tempted to buy the 1080i player (HD-A3) right now for $117. Or should I wait until the price on the 1080p one (HD-A30) starts to drop? Any thoughts?

and then your old analog TVs are done. Just a friendly reminder.

Well, I was wrong. Even if this news is denied by Toshiba, the mere fact of it getting leaked will only accelerate the inevitable:

While denying that a decision on the fate of HD DVD has been made, a Toshiba marketing exec left the door wide open. “Given the market developments in the past month, Toshiba will continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players,” Jodi Sally, VP of marketing for Toshiba America Consumer Products, told The Hollywood Reporter.

At current price points—HD DVD players are available for as little as $119—Toshiba has to be taking a substantial loss on each player sold. If there was a realistic prospect that those loss-leader sales would result in a large installed base for future movie sales and resultant royalties, those losses would be eagerly embraced. That’s an all-but-impossible scenario at this point, however.

It’s time to concede that Blu-ray will win the format war. The economics of selling the players cheap no longer make sense.

Still, that puts me in a quandary. Given that I (and literally everyone else who watches TV) will be in the market for an HDTV soon, do I now have to budget an additional $400 for a blu-ray player? I wonder if buying a HD-DVD player still makes sense - you can pick one up at fire-sale prices and they are outstanding upscalers for your existing old-fashioned DVD library. In fact, I might not bother with a dedicated Blu-ray player ever, since the Playstation 3 is actually more future-proof and feature rich than any standalone. In fact, bundling the BD player with the PS3 in hindsight turns out to have been genius, not just for winning the format war, but also for another more subtle reason:

While HD DVD may have done a better job of future-proofing their players, the immaturity of the Blu-ray spec hasn’t proven to be an insurmountable obstacle. At CES, the Blu-ray Disc Association announced that 3.5 million Blu-ray players had been sold to date. Of those, 3 million were PlayStation 3s, the most future-proof Blu-ray player on the market. Still, this means that roughly 15 percent of the early adopters are going to be frozen out of the latest and greatest Blu-ray features with BD-Live. That’s bad news for current owners of stand-alone players, but with the price of the PlayStation 3 now down to $399.99 and the format wars shaping up nicely in Blu-ray’s favor, the system may actually be less expensive and more powerful than the latest-generation standalone players.

This is quite the odd turn of events: it was assumed when the PS3 launched that the gaming system would be the Trojan horse that brought Blu-ray into the homes of the mass market. Now? The inexpensive and future-proofed Blu-ray functions of the PS3, matched with the high-quality upscaling the system brings to normal DVDs, may be the Trojan horse bringing gaming to home theater enthusiasts.

Game, set, match to Sony. But if there are still HD-DVD players available for sale when I’m ready to go HD, I think that’s a better value proposition for DVD playback.

(UPDATE: Steven beat me to the punch)

UPDATE 2: confirmed, Toshiba is getting out:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp (6502.T: Quote, Profile, Research) is planning to give up on its HD DVD format for high-definition video, conceding defeat to the competing Blu-Ray technology backed by Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research), a company source said on Saturday.

Japanese public broadcaster NHK had earlier reported that Toshiba would suffer losses in the tens of billions of yen (hundreds of millions of dollars) as it scrapped production of HD DVD players and recorders and took other steps to exit the business.

The company source told Reuters that Toshiba was in the final stages of planning to exit the HD DVD business and that an official decision would be made soon.

It’s time to keep an eye on the price for the Toshiba HD-A30. It’s currently at $149, about $30 more expensive than the lowest-cost unit (HD-A3), but it’s 1080p instead of 1080i and comes with two HD-DVD movies included. Plus of course there’s the usual get 5 discs free offer. I’m going to wait to see if te price drops further but that’s not a bad deal at all.

Well, this sucks for HD-DVD:

Netflix has just announced its intention to only stock Blu-ray titles in the future. Netflix justified its decision by pointing out the fact that most Hollywood studios seem to be converging solely around the Sony-backed format — a fact that’s all too familiar to Toshiba and friends. With both Blockbuster and now the ‘Flix having eschewed HD DVD for BD, it’s gonna get harder and harder to even find a place to rent those former discs in the first place, let alone one that has a decent selection.

I think that this is pretty serious a blow, since renting movies is the way most people watch them instead of purchasing them outright. Though it should be noted that downloading a movie instead of renting a physical disc is a business plan waiting in the wings. I don’t think it will happen soon enough to blunt the impact of Netflix’s decision, though, and anyway even if download becomes prevalent that doesnt help Blu-ray or HD-DVD much. They are both fighting to see who gets obsoleted last.

HD-DVD players are very, very cheap at Amazon.

Congratulations in advance to Ubu for joining the Haibane Renmei renmei. Almost as noteworthy are his comments about the state of the R1 anime industry, partly in response to Steven’s earlier comments about the size of the market and even earlier commentary about the impact of fansubs. Ubu writes,

At nearly 40 times the going rate for an American series, fansubs be damned: they aren’t giving value for their money, and they will go out of business if that’s their plan.

In fact, I worry that it is their plan — to self-justify retreating from the R1 market. [...] there’s obviously a fundamental disconnect between Japanese management views and R1 market conditions.

I have to agree that the problem isn’t fansubs. The disconnect is at least partly because of region-coding. However, it should be noted that Blu-Ray (the likely victor of the nextgen DVD format wars, at least as far as anime is concerned) compresses Japan and the United States into a single region. I’ll leave informed speculation as to the ramifications of that to the experts, but it’s definitely time to start taking Blu-Ray into account.

So there’s this little thing called the Consumer Electronics Show out in Las Vegas where all the big tech companies come together and show off all the geek service they’ve got lined up for the following year. Everyone except for Apple, that is, who has their own little bash a week later to be fashionable. But this year, the overlap of CES with the political cycle makes for some interesting and informative analogies. Consider this. Two candidates, each representing change from the current status quo, each promising vast advantages and benefits and superior experience. Both are locked in a drawn-out battle for the hearts of voters, but also a more pragmatic one for the minds of delegates, because each one wants to be the nominee for the bigger battle ahead. And suddenly in the very first contest between them of the year, one candidate pulls ahead with a dramatic upset, casting seer doubt on the viability of the other (who had campaigned with an aura of inevitability).

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, competing for the Democratic presidential nomination? Nope. HD-DVD and Blu-ray, competing for next-generation DVD status in your home theater (and more importantly, on your DVD bookshelf).

The big news last week was that Warner Video is ditching HD-DVD; now comes news from the Financial Times that Paramount might also abandon the format and embrace Blu-ray exclusivity:

Paramount is poised to drop its support of HD-DVD following Warner Brothers’ recent backing of Sony’s Blu-ray technology, in a move that could sound the death knell of HD-DVD and bring the home entertainment format war to a definitive end.

Paramount and DreamWorks Animation, which makes the Shrek films, came out in support of HD-DVD last summer, joining General Electric’s Universal Studios as the main backers of the Toshiba format.

However, Paramount, which is owned by Viacom, is understood to have a clause in its contract with the HD-DVD camp that would allow it to switch sides in the event of Warner backing Blu-ray, according to people familiar with the situation.

Paramount is set to have a bumper 2008 with several likely blockbusters, including the latest instalment in the Indiana Jones franchise, slated for release.

This basically leaves HD-DVD without any major must-have titles in its format exclusively, as Blu-Ray already had about 70% of the content even before you take Paramount into account. Already, TechCrunch is declaring the format war over and that HD-DVD has “joined the Deadpool”. To say this is premature is an understatement. To date, combined sales of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players and discs alike are a drop in the bucket compared to traditional DVD sales. Plus, Universal Studios still is committed to the format and as we have just seen, major studio allegiances can shift over time. The key I think to keeping HD-DVD alive is that the players are cheap, and they do the job as an advanced DVD player to upconvert traditional DVD to HDTV resolution. Take the Playstation 3 out of the equation and standalone HD-DVD players easily outsell Blu-ray; from a consumer perspective it’s the $99-$199 piece of hardware that is easier to justify than the $499-$699 one, especially when that consumer still is feeling the pain of the outlay for the fancy new HDTV (which everyone’s going to feel at some point, given the pending switchover).

I think it’s absurd to count HD-DVD out right now. Certainly the news isn’t great, but neither format is viable yet and it will be years before they even begin to approach a reasonable fraction of the existing DVD market. I’d still buy an HD-DVD today if I had an HDTV to watch it on, mainly because it would serve double duty and ultimately all of this won’t matter because the future is not physical media, it’s video download.

Warner Studios made a big splash this past week when they announced they were going to ditch HD-DVD in favor of Blu-Ray. The ripple effect of this hasn’t fully played out, but one consequence appears to be that the Lord of the Rings (and The Hobbit, one assumes) will only be on Blu-Ray:

According to Variety, New Line and HBO will follow Warner’s lead to side only with Blu-ray Disc. BBC Video, the company behind the popular high-definition nature documentary Planet Earth, has not yet publicly expressed its intentions with format exclusivity.

New Line already positions its Blu-ray Disc products with greater priority than the equivalent HD DVD. New Line’s first high-definition film, Hairspray, hit Blu-ray Disc in late November 2007, while an HD DVD version was only promised sometime in early 2008.
[...]
Perhaps the most important outcome of New Line’s upcoming decision is that the studio owns the rights to The Lord of The Rings trilogy. Should the (second) most compelling motion picture trilogy hit high-definition home video, it’ll be on Blu-ray Disc.

If anything, this means that it’s better to just stick with legacy DVD and get my HD content via the internet. At least until the price of Blu Ray drives falls to the $100 mark or below (territory already occupied by HD-DVD). It also should be noted from the article that part of the reason for the preference of Blu-Ray is again the region-coding issue.

In one year, our analog TVs become junk - unless you get a digital converter box. The federal government is issuing vouchers for $40 off these boxes, which will be available at most retail electronics outlets. Just sign up online. In just two days, they’ve already received 500,000 applications!

in teh great battle of nextgen DVD formats, one piece of information seems to be conventional wisdom: that HD-DVD, unlike Blu-ray, will not have region-coding. At AICN, Massawyrm cites being region-free as one of his main motivations for choosing HD-DVD, for example. But it’s been known for over a year that despite initial reports that HD-DVD would not restrict by region, it has since succumbed to the pressure and will likely have “some form” of region coding eventually. As Ars Technica noted 18 months ago, there’s a chance that this will affect the early adopters (including anyone who buys an HD-DVD this holiday season, it should be noted):

If RPC is ultimately approved and incorporated into the HD DVD format, it is unclear how the players that have already been sold will handle it. The most logical solution would be to allow the current handful of HD DVD players already on the market to play any HD DVD. Unfortunately, history tell us that logic is not one of the entertainment industry’s strong suits, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that region-coded HD DVDs will cause problems for some early adopters.

Note that Blu-ray’s region coding scheme compresses the number of regions down from seven to three - and that includes lumping Japan and the United States into one region, which will definitely turn the economics of the anime industry upside down.

I still personally lean towards HD-DVD for the simple reason of cost. The Toshiba HD-A3 is selling at the $200 price point on Amazon, which is just a fantastic deal (esp if you have or are planning to buy an HD-TV). And there’s $100 players at Walmart, too (though not the name brand). I don’t think the worst case scenario is likely to come to pass because to be honest I don’t see either BD or HD-DVD going away anytime soon - both have years to go before they are a sizable fraction of traditional DVD sales. And there’s always standard DVD formats or the Internet download for the occasional movie I must watch but isn’t available on my format of choice. All of these physical media formats are going to be obsolete eventually anyway.

UPDATE: Anime R1 DVD sales peaked in 2003 and have been declining ever since. I speculate without evidence that 2003 was when fansubbing really started as an industry in its own right - and was a response almost entirely due to region coding alone. It’s also telling that the major players in the industry don’t even mention region coding as they discuss the state of the US market.