Comments on: forecasting the winter in wisconsin

By: Wonderduck

Wonderduck — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 06:47:48 +0000

If the past two years are anything to go by, expect the first Snowmageddon to occur on or about December 1st.

By: fledgling otaku

fledgling otaku — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:14:07 +0000

that is a fascinating link, Steven!

These stratospheric and ocean responses during solar maximum keep the eastern Pacific even cooler and drier than usual, producing conditions similar to a La Niña event.

However, the cooling of about 1-2 degrees Fahrenheit is focused further east than in a typical La Niña, is only about half as strong, and is associated with different wind patterns in the stratosphere.

Earth’s response to the solar cycle continues over the year or two following peak sunspot activity. The La Niña-like pattern triggered by the solar maximum tends to evolve into a pattern similar to El Niño, as slow-moving currents replace the cool water over the eastern tropical Pacific with warmer water.

Again, the ocean response is only about half as strong as with El Niño, and the lagged warmth is not as consistent as the cold event-like pattern that occurs during peaks in the solar cycle.

Solar maximum could potentially enhance a true La Niña event or dampen a true El Niño event. The La Niña of 1988-89 occurred near the peak of solar maximum.

That La Niña became unusually strong and was associated with significant changes in weather patterns, such as an unusually mild and dry winter in the southwestern United States.

that suggests the impact is during solar maximum, not minimums though. Looks like sunpot cycle peaks ultimately enhance La Nina/El nino. The major impact seems to be limited to the coasts (as the winter foecasts for 2010 also agree – el nino will bring harsher weather to the Us eastern seabord). The midwest is affected less.

i dont see much evidence for the recent harsher midwest winters being related to sunspots but there probably are tons of data that could be argued either way out there. Im way out of my field.

By: Steven Den Beste

Steven Den Beste — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 01:40:47 +0000

Ah! Found it!

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=115485&org=NSF&from=news

By: Steven Den Beste

Steven Den Beste — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 00:59:59 +0000

The way I’ve heard it, there are a couple of effects. First, when sunspots are missing the solar wind is lower, which means that the Earth gets struck with more cosmic rays. The atmosphere of the Earth acts like a gigantic cloud chamber for cosmic rays, and as a result there’s more clouds getting formed, which increases the average albedo, reflecting more of the Sun’s light into space. Which means we get colder.

I also read something about how it does indeed affect the stratosphere in another way which would cause cooling but I don’t remember what the cause-and-effect relationship was. What we do know from the historical record is that the last two times one or more sunspot cycles in a row were busts, the Earth got a lot colder.

By: Fledgling Otaku

Fledgling Otaku — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:22:37 +0000

I confess I dont know much about this topic, but my understanding is that the sunspot cycle barely affects total radiative output (which is obvious if you consider the basic physics of the sun. Now, ultraviolet output will definitely vary heavily with the sunspot cycle, but thats only going to really affect the stratosphere, not the troposphere. The sunspot cycle causes headaches for our elecctronic infrastructure, especially given our reliance on satellites, but i’m not seeing any plausible reason it would actually affect weather. UV light is just the wrong energy.

By: Steven Den Beste

Steven Den Beste — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 16:47:37 +0000

With the sunspot collapse in solar cycle 24, they may well not be outliers.