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	<title>Comments on: pre-rolling the dice</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.haibane.info/2008/05/12/pre-rolling-the-dice/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.haibane.info/2008/05/12/pre-rolling-the-dice/</link>
	<description>a celebration of science fiction, anime, and geek culture</description>
	<pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2008 09:17:55 +0000</pubDate>
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		<item>
		<title>By: FhnuZoag</title>
		<link>http://www.haibane.info/2008/05/12/pre-rolling-the-dice/#comment-1630</link>
		<dc:creator>FhnuZoag</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 May 2008 20:38:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.haibane.info/?p=1033#comment-1630</guid>
		<description>Nah, Pete is doing Bayesian wrong.

A Bayesian would take the opposite approach - roll the dice, and keep the one that rolls twenty twice in a row. Because no die is perfect, a die that rolled two twenties is has a slightly higher probability of being favourably loaded, and so his posterior probability of rolling twenties with the 'twenty-rollers' is a bit better than with all his other dice.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nah, Pete is doing Bayesian wrong.</p>
<p>A Bayesian would take the opposite approach - roll the dice, and keep the one that rolls twenty twice in a row. Because no die is perfect, a die that rolled two twenties is has a slightly higher probability of being favourably loaded, and so his posterior probability of rolling twenties with the &#8216;twenty-rollers&#8217; is a bit better than with all his other dice.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://www.haibane.info/2008/05/12/pre-rolling-the-dice/#comment-1629</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 22:49:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.haibane.info/?p=1033#comment-1629</guid>
		<description>I remember seeing one of those shows where random morons try to cheat Vegas, and someone pointed out that there was one group of people that figured out a pattern on a particular roulette wheel.  They had spent months gathering a statistically significant sample of this particular table's results, and eventually won lots of money.  The idea was that imperfections in the table's design (i.e. it's not perfectly level, the wear and tear is not uniform, etc...) could favor specific results.

So theoretically, imperfections in the manufacturing of a particular 20 sided die could favor a specific number (or avoid rolling a 1, etc...).  Of course, statistically speaking, you'd have to have a large sample set, and if you had 1000 dice, you'd have to do millions and millions of rolls before you figured out which ones didn't roll a 1 very often.

The Gambler's Fallacy is funny though, especially at the blackjack table.  Good players know the basic strategy by heart and so when someone doesn't play by basic strategy, they can still see what the next cards that come out are and will often blame the person not playing by basic strategy for losses.  However, a person hitting or staying has just as much a chance of helping as hurting...  I guess people just notice the bad results better.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I remember seeing one of those shows where random morons try to cheat Vegas, and someone pointed out that there was one group of people that figured out a pattern on a particular roulette wheel.  They had spent months gathering a statistically significant sample of this particular table&#8217;s results, and eventually won lots of money.  The idea was that imperfections in the table&#8217;s design (i.e. it&#8217;s not perfectly level, the wear and tear is not uniform, etc&#8230;) could favor specific results.</p>
<p>So theoretically, imperfections in the manufacturing of a particular 20 sided die could favor a specific number (or avoid rolling a 1, etc&#8230;).  Of course, statistically speaking, you&#8217;d have to have a large sample set, and if you had 1000 dice, you&#8217;d have to do millions and millions of rolls before you figured out which ones didn&#8217;t roll a 1 very often.</p>
<p>The Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy is funny though, especially at the blackjack table.  Good players know the basic strategy by heart and so when someone doesn&#8217;t play by basic strategy, they can still see what the next cards that come out are and will often blame the person not playing by basic strategy for losses.  However, a person hitting or staying has just as much a chance of helping as hurting&#8230;  I guess people just notice the bad results better.</p>
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		<title>By: fledgling otaku</title>
		<link>http://www.haibane.info/2008/05/12/pre-rolling-the-dice/#comment-1627</link>
		<dc:creator>fledgling otaku</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 17:34:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.haibane.info/?p=1033#comment-1627</guid>
		<description>ah I hadnt seen it formulated that way before. yeah in a sense D&#038;D is a gambler' game, albeit one that favors the gambler.

that wiki entry you linked notes that there are some things that try ot trick you into thinking the Gambler's Fallacy applies when in fact it does not. An example of this is the Monty Haul problem.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ah I hadnt seen it formulated that way before. yeah in a sense D&#038;D is a gambler&#8217; game, albeit one that favors the gambler.</p>
<p>that wiki entry you linked notes that there are some things that try ot trick you into thinking the Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy applies when in fact it does not. An example of this is the Monty Haul problem.</p>
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		<title>By: Steven Den Beste</title>
		<link>http://www.haibane.info/2008/05/12/pre-rolling-the-dice/#comment-1626</link>
		<dc:creator>Steven Den Beste</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 17:08:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.haibane.info/?p=1033#comment-1626</guid>
		<description>As I'm sure you know, that's an example of the &lt;a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy" rel="nofollow"&gt;Gambler's Fallacy&lt;/a&gt;.

The short response is, "Lady Luck has no memory."</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As I&#8217;m sure you know, that&#8217;s an example of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy" rel="nofollow">Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy</a>.</p>
<p>The short response is, &#8220;Lady Luck has no memory.&#8221;</p>
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