The PS3 still costs twice that, and doesn’t support the interactive features of Blu-Ray that HD-DVD had out of the box at launch as standard. Actually the Samsung BD-P1400 is cheaper than a PS3 and does go up to 1080p, but that’s still way more expensive than its HD-DVD counterpart.

I don’t think either format is cooked until it starts to achieve significant market share relative to legacy DVD. The numbers horserace between them is meaningless since all nextgen-DVD sales of players and discs combined are still a drop in the bucket.

Did Sony bribe Warner? who knows, but I was skeptical that Toshiba et al bribed Paramount when it made its big switch earlier, so I guess I should extend the same benefit of the doubt. I think it’s more likely that the big studios are trying to gamble on one or the other to save themselves the cost of producing titles in both and diluting their marketing.

Andrew, you’re right that Blu-ray can be backwards compatible. I guess I sholdn’t imply otherwise. But as you said, with HD-DVD its already in the spec. My argument is basically that buying HD-DVD is not a risk like buying Betamax was, though, because the HD DVD players have value and aren’t junk if the format dies off. Plus HD-DVD is less of a risk from the simple upfront cost perspective, too.

Backwards compatibility is hardly exclusive to HD-DVD. If I understand correctly it was quite an engineering challenge to have a blue laser read a standard DVD, but somehow they got it to work. I’m no Blu-ray partisan (let me take this opportunity to echo the general “Sony sucks!” sentiment), but just because the format doesn’t have “DVD” in its name doesn’t mean it isn’t compatible with them, heh.

(Looking into this further, it does seem that backwards compatibility is a mandatory part of the HD-DVD standard, whereas it’s optional for Blu-ray players, but why would any major manufacturer would leave it out? Maybe in five or six years when we start seeing cheapo $30 Apex high-def players…)

Blu Ray is also starting to come down in price a bit. The PS3 is now only $399, and you can usually find some big deals for getting that along with a bunch of free discs (I saw some crazy stuff, like a $399 PS3 with 15 free movies, during the holidays). Of course, you can get deals like that with HD-DVD as well, but their selection is more limited.

I’d love to see HD-DVD win this war (I hate Sony), but I just don’t see how that’s possible. I think that the holiday season 2008 will still feature a big push by both formats, but I think that’s HD-DVDs last chance. If it doesn’t do so well by the end of this year, they’re cooked.